Claim-Level Sourcing

Source Register

Every record below carries the ID used in Fix the System — Policy Design and Implementation (Version 0.6), so a figure on this site links to the exact source record behind it, not just to a bibliography. Where a source has a known political lean, the record says so. Author arithmetic and unscored illustrations are labeled as such wherever they appear.

Fix the System — Policy Design and Implementation

The complete register — with page and table locators, calculation formulas, and confidence labels — lives in the implementation document (Version 0.6, approved September 10, 2026), alongside the mechanisms the records support.

  • S01
    Program for Public Consultation, University of Maryland, “Prohibit Members of Congress and Live-In Family from Trading Stocks,” national survey presentation, June 2023. 86% support overall; 87% Republican, 88% Democratic, 81% independent. publicconsultation.org
  • S02
    Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives, Roll Call 280, H.R. 7008, July 22, 2026. Vote 232–198. clerk.house.gov
    The measure allowed existing holdings to be retained and sold and was paired with a voter-identification provision; it is not a clean or complete ban, and it is not law.
  • S03
    Associated Press, “House votes to limit stock trading by members of Congress,” July 22, 2026. Bill content and political context; the official vote count comes from the House Clerk (S02). apnews.com
  • S04
    Daniel Yudkin, Stephen Hawkins, and Tim Dixon, The Perception Gap: How False Impressions Are Pulling Americans Apart, More in Common, 2019. moreincommon.com
    Advocacy-oriented civic research with published methodology. Measures misperceived extremity; it is not evidence of support for this program.
  • S05
    Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036, February 11, 2026. Debt held by the public about 101% of GDP in 2026, projected to 120% by 2036; net interest about $1.0 trillion rising toward $2.1 trillion; total deficit about 5.8% of GDP and primary deficit about 2.6%. cbo.gov
    Baseline projections under current law, not forecasts of enacted policy. Verified August 7, 2026.
  • S06
    Board of Trustees, 2026 Annual Report of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds, June 9, 2026, especially Table II.A1. OASI depletion in 2032 with 78% of scheduled retirement benefits payable; combined OASI/DI depletion in 2034 at 83%. ssa.gov
    The retirement-only and combined figures must not be mixed.
  • S07
    Eric McGhee, Seth Masket, Boris Shor, Steven Rogers, and Nolan McCarty, “A Primary Cause of Partisanship? Nomination Systems and Legislator Ideology,” American Journal of Political Science 58, no. 2 (2014).
    Peer-reviewed. The finding — nomination-system openness essentially unrelated to legislator extremism — cuts against a moderation promise and is cited for that reason.
  • S08
    City of St. Louis Board of Election Commissioners, March 4, 2025 Primary Election Final Official Results. 34,982 voters cast 48,908 mayoral approvals (about 1.40 approvals per voter); Cara Spencer was approved by 68.11% of participating voters. stlouis-mo.gov
  • S09
    City of St. Louis Board of Election Commissioners, “Clarification Regarding March 4 Primary Municipal Election Ballot,” January 21, 2025. stlouis-mo.gov
  • S10
    North Dakota H.B. 1297 (2025), prohibiting ranked-choice and approval voting statewide. ndlegis.gov
  • S11
    Michigan Constitution, art. IV, sec. 6 — independent citizens redistricting commission (4 Democratic-affiliated, 4 Republican-affiliated, 5 unaffiliated members; adoption requires seven votes including at least two from each group). legislature.mi.gov
    Cited for the commission design superseded on September 10, 2026; retained as the record of that design and as the standard for the technical office that applies voting-rights deviations.
  • S12
    California Constitution, art. XXI, sec. 2 — Citizens Redistricting Commission (5-5-4 with a comparable cross-partisan adoption rule). leginfo.legislature.ca.gov
    Cited for the superseded commission design.
  • S13
    Daryl DeFord, Moon Duchin, and Justin Solomon, “Recombination: A Family of Markov Chains for Redistricting,” Harvard Data Science Review 3, no. 1 (2021); related automated-simulation work by Kosuke Imai and collaborators. doi.org
    Cited for the ensemble testing in the superseded commission design.
  • S14
    Agee v. Benson, No. 1:22-cv-00272 (W.D. Mich. Dec. 21, 2023), three-judge panel; remedial proceedings in 2024. Michigan's commission used race impermissibly in thirteen Detroit-area districts and was ordered to correct them. law.justia.com
    Cited as evidence for transparency and judicial review, not against commission independence.
  • S15
    National Conference of State Legislatures, election-administration resources on ranked-choice voting and state primary systems. ncsl.org
    NCSL is a bipartisan organization serving state legislatures.
  • S16
    Constitution Annotated, U.S. Constitution art. I, sec. 2 and amend. XVII. House terms are two years; Senate terms are six years, so the immediate-election consequence requires a constitutional amendment. constitution.congress.gov
  • S17
    Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, Tax Payments by Undocumented Immigrants, July 30, 2024. $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes in 2022, including $25.7 billion to Social Security and $6.4 billion to Medicare. itep.org
    ITEP is generally regarded as progressive-leaning; its methodology is published.
  • S18
    Internal Revenue Service, “Taxable income,” including capital gains. irs.gov
  • S19
    U.S. Department of the Treasury, General Explanations of the Administration's Fiscal Year 2025 Revenue Proposals — minimum tax, unrealized gains, liquidity, and deferral discussion. home.treasury.gov
    Design precedent, not adopted policy here.
  • S20
    AARP, “1 in 5 Americans Ages 50+ Have No Retirement Savings,” April 24, 2024. aarp.org
    Advocacy organization and survey source. No newer AARP vintage as of August 7, 2026.
  • S21
    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2025, May 2026, savings and investments section. federalreserve.gov
    The Fed's self-assessed on-track figure is a different construct from the model-based readiness measure used in the scorecard and is not used there.
  • S22
    Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary, Long-Range Solvency Provision B5.2 (special minimum benefit: PIA for 30 years of coverage at 125% of the monthly poverty level, prorated below 30, wage-indexed). Estimated at 0.17% of taxable payroll under the 2022 and 2023 Trustees Reports, 0.13% under 2024, and 0.10% under 2025 — roughly $11–19 billion on the stated 2026 payroll base. ssa.gov
    A benchmark for a comparable provision, not an actuarial score of this design. The prior 0.16% figure is superseded (August 7, 2026).
  • S23
    Congressional Research Service, The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy by Income: Recent Evidence and Implications for the Social Security Retirement Age, R44846. crsreports.congress.gov
    Cited as support for rejecting a retirement-age increase; the proposal makes no change to the retirement age.
  • S24
    U.S. Senate, S. 4361, Border Act of 2024, actions and May 23, 2024 cloture vote, 43–50, with Senator Lankford voting against advancing the bill he negotiated; Associated Press reporting for political context. congress.gov
    Event-specific attribution only; the record does not support claims about any individual's private motive.
  • S25
    Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, Pub. L. 99-603, 100 Stat. 3359. govinfo.gov
    Historical analogy identifying an implementation failure to prevent, not proof the current design will succeed.
  • S26
    U.S. Supreme Court, U.S. Term Limits, Inc. v. Thornton, 514 U.S. 779 (1995). supreme.justia.com
    Used only to explain why congressional term limits are rejected and would require an amendment.
  • S27
    Congressional Budget Office, Administrative Costs of Private Accounts in Social Security (2004) and related distributional work. cbo.gov
    Historical design evidence; assumptions require updating.
  • S28
    Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, The National Retirement Risk Index: An Update from the 2022 SCF (published February 27, 2024): 39% of working-age households at risk of being unable to maintain their standard of living in retirement — equivalently, 61% on track. crr.bc.edu
    Adopted August 7, 2026 as the official model for scorecard measure 8. CRR cautions that pandemic-era factors lowered the at-risk share and it may drift back toward 40–50%. No newer vintage as of August 7, 2026.
  • S29
    U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, annual poverty guidelines. 125% of poverty is about $1,660 per month in 2026, rounded to $1,700 in public copy. aspe.hhs.gov
    The monthly figure must be recomputed for the publication year and household definition.
  • S30
    Brennan Center for Justice, “The Competitive Districts that Will Decide Control of the House” (2024): independent commissions drew about 19% of congressional districts but 41% of 2024 toss-ups. brennancenter.org
    The former 15.0%-versus-5.7% median comparison was retired August 7, 2026 after its study could not be located. This analysis concerns commissions, the design superseded on September 10, 2026; it is cited only as evidence that removing politicians from the process is associated with competitiveness, not for the formula's outcomes.
  • S31
    Gallup, June 2024 immigration survey: 76% favored hiring more Border Patrol agents; 75% favored a path to citizenship for immigrants living in the United States illegally who meet requirements over time; 81% for those brought as children. news.gallup.com
  • S32
    AARP Public Policy Institute, July 13, 2022: about 57 million people — 48% of private-sector employees ages 18–64 — work for an employer offering neither a pension nor a retirement savings plan. aarp.org
  • S33
    Pew Research Center, U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population Reached a Record 14 Million in 2023, August 21, 2025. Total unauthorized population as of mid-2023, including about 6 million with temporary protections and about 2 million admitted with precarious statuses. pewresearch.org
    Recorded August 7, 2026 for the open duration-definition question on scorecard measure 5. The scorecard's “long-term residents” baseline remains the 2022-vintage 11 million pending an author decision.
  • S34
    Cook Political Report, 2026 House race ratings: 18 toss-up seats (10 Democratic-held, 8 Republican-held) of 435; roughly eight in ten districts remain safe for one party. cookpolitical.com
    Cook's initial 2026-cycle ratings, verified August 7, 2026; kept as the scorecard's fixed baseline. Cook's ratings as of September 11, 2026 (as compiled by 270toWin) count 21 toss-ups and 365 safe seats after the 2025–26 redraws.
  • S35
    U.S. Department of the Treasury, remarks by the Secretary of the Treasury before the Financial Literacy and Education Commission, July 27, 2026: 7 million children enrolled in the federal seeded accounts launched July 4, 2026. The IRS's own last published count (IR-2026-42, March 31, 2026) was more than 4 million children signed up, more than 1 million of them with elections for the $1,000 pilot deposit (births 2025 through 2028). home.treasury.gov
    A partial savings vehicle for a limited cohort, not the proposed universal retirement transition. Corrected September 13, 2026: an earlier version of this record gave an unsourced pilot-eligibility figure and the wrong date; see the child-investment-accounts Case for the full record.
  • S36
    Louisiana Secretary of State, Closed Party Primary Elections — Louisiana switched to closed party primaries for federal races effective 2026 (first closed primaries held May 2026). sos.la.gov
  • S37
    Iowa Code ch. 42 (2026), §42.4, redistricting standards: population equality, contiguity, the fewest county and city divisions, compactness, and a prohibition on using incumbent addresses, voter party affiliations, previous election results, and demographic data other than population counts except as the Constitution and federal law require. legis.iowa.gov
    Verified September 10, 2026. The working precedent for the public districting formula.
  • S38
    Jowei Chen and Jonathan Rodden, “Unintentional Gerrymandering: Political Geography and Electoral Bias in Legislatures,” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 8, no. 3 (2013): 239–269. Neutral, compact simulated districts produce a pro-Republican seat bias where Democratic voters are concentrated in cities. doi.org
    Verified September 10, 2026. Why the formula claims a neutral process, not a neutral outcome.