Hold Me to It

The Scorecard

Any argument like this one should be falsifiable. Eight numbers, published every year by people with no stake in this argument — hard to fake, and grouped by whether they test the failure itself or one of the two rules that produce it.

Baselines refreshed August 7, 2026. Each row shows its baseline vintage; definitions and anti-gaming rules are fixed in the implementation document, Appendix D.

The failure itself

Nobody will close a deal that lets the other side win too

Measure	Now	Target
Long-term residents without legal status Notes & source Met by legalizing established residents and controlling entry going forward — if it were ever met by removing eleven million people, the reform failed. Pew now estimates a record 14 million total unauthorized in 2023, most of the increase recent or under temporary protections; the long-term baseline keeps the 2022 vintage until the duration definition is fixed. Source: DHS and Pew Research (2022 vintage) · 2022 estimates; verified Aug 7, 2026	About 11M	Under 1M
Cents of each federal tax dollar eaten by interest Source Source: Congressional Budget Office and Treasury · CBO baseline, Feb 11, 2026; verified Aug 7, 2026	19¢	Under 10¢
Americans over 50 with no retirement savings at all Notes & source Deliberately a pair with the next one — a person with a hundred dollars saved is off this list and still facing an old age they can't afford. Source: AARP · AARP survey, Apr 24, 2024; verified Aug 7, 2026	20%	Under 5%
Americans on track to keep their standard of living in retirement Notes & source Model-based, not a self-assessment survey: the 2022 vintage finds 39% at risk, inverted here. The definition and vintage stay fixed so later comparisons mean something. Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, National Retirement Risk Index · 2022-SCF vintage, published Feb 2024; verified Aug 7, 2026	61%	90%

What produces it — rule one

Most of us never vote in the election that decides who represents us

Measure	Now	Target	Done?
States with both an open primary and formula-drawn maps Notes & source The conjunction matters: a state must have both. No state yet draws its maps by the public formula; Iowa's staff-drawn maps are the nearest precedent but do not count. Separate counts of primary states and map states are not substitutes. Source: State election law · Verified Sept 10, 2026	0	50
House seats where November is genuinely in doubt, of 435 Notes & source The baseline of 18 is Cook's initial 2026 rating and stays fixed so later comparisons mean something. Cook's ratings as of Sept 11, 2026 count 21 toss-ups, after the 2025–26 redraws; the number moves through each cycle. Source: Cook Political Report · Cook's initial 2026-cycle ratings (baseline); current ratings checked Sept 13, 2026	18	150

What produces it — rule two

Self-dealing is legal, and failure has no consequence

Measure	Now	Target	Done?
Members of Congress and covered family trading individual stocks Notes & source The House passed a bill on July 22, 2026, but it allowed existing holdings to be retained and sold, and it is not law. Source: Congressional ethics law and filings · Verified Aug 7, 2026	Legal	Banned
Budgets passed on time, of the last 20 years Source Source: Congressional Research Service · Through FY2026; verified Aug 7, 2026	0	20

There is no deadline column, on purpose. A date invites delay — put a year on a page and everyone relaxes until two years before it. Several of these could be done inside a decade if anyone wanted them badly enough, and none of them require a generation.

The target for competitive House seats is 150, not 435 — Americans have sorted themselves geographically, and even a perfectly neutral map leaves Manhattan and rural Wyoming uncompetitive. A third of the House genuinely in play would be a transformation.