How We Will Know If It Worked
The Scorecard
Any argument like this one should be falsifiable. Eight numbers, published every year by people with no stake in this document — hard to fake, and grouped by whether they test the failure itself or one of the two mechanisms that produce it.
The failure itself
Nobody will close a deal that lets the other side win too
| Measure | Now | Target |
|---|---|---|
People here long-term without legal status Source: DHS and Pew Met by legalizing the people already here and controlling entry going forward. If it is ever met by removing eleven million people instead, the reform failed. | 11M | Under 1M |
Cents of each federal tax dollar eaten by interest Source: Congressional Budget Office and Treasury | 19¢ | Under 10¢ |
Americans over 50 with no retirement savings at all Source: Federal Reserve and AARP Deliberately a pair with the next one — a person with a hundred dollars saved is off this list and still facing an old age they can't afford. | 20% | Under 5% |
Americans on track to keep their standard of living in retirement Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, National Retirement Risk Index | 61% | 90% |
What produces it — cause one
Most of us never vote in the election that decides who represents us
| Measure | Now | Target |
|---|---|---|
States with an open primary and an independent map commission Source: Ballotpedia and state election offices | 1 | 50 |
House seats where November is genuinely in doubt, of 435 Source: Cook Political Report The target is 150, not 435 — Americans have sorted themselves geographically, and even a perfectly neutral map leaves Manhattan and rural Wyoming uncompetitive. | 18 | 150 |
What produces it — cause two
The system makes self-dealing legal
| Measure | Now | Target |
|---|---|---|
Members of Congress and families trading individual stocks Source: Congressional ethics filings | Legal | Banned |
Budgets passed on time, of the last 20 years Source: Congressional Research Service | 0 | 20 |
There is no deadline column, on purpose. A date invites delay — put a year on a page and everyone relaxes until two years before it. Several of these could be done inside a decade if anyone wanted them badly enough, and none of them require a generation.
The target for competitive House seats is 150, not 435 — Americans have sorted themselves geographically, and even a perfectly neutral map leaves Manhattan and rural Wyoming uncompetitive. A third of the House genuinely in play would be a transformation.