How We Will Know If It Worked
Any argument like this one should be falsifiable. If a movement can't say in advance what success looks like, it will always be able to claim it afterward.
So here are eight numbers, grouped by whether they test the failure itself or one of the two mechanisms that produce it. They're published every year by people with no stake in this document, and they're hard to fake.
There is no deadline column, on purpose. A date invites delay — put 2046 on a page and everyone relaxes until 2044. Several of these could be done inside a decade if anyone wanted them badly enough, and none of them require a generation. The last column is simply Done? It stays empty until it isn't.
The one number worth explaining before you read it: the target for competitive House seats is 150, not 435. Americans have sorted themselves geographically, and even a perfectly neutral map leaves Manhattan and rural Wyoming uncompetitive. A third of the House genuinely in play would be a transformation.
Nobody will close a deal that lets the other side win too
| Measure | Now | Target |
|---|---|---|
People here long-term without legal status Source: DHS and Pew Met by legalizing the people already here and controlling entry going forward. If it is ever met by removing eleven million people instead, the reform failed. | 11M | Under 1M |
Cents of each federal tax dollar eaten by interest Source: Congressional Budget Office and Treasury | 19¢ | Under 10¢ |
Americans over 50 with no retirement savings at all Source: Federal Reserve and AARP Deliberately a pair with the next one — a person with a hundred dollars saved is off this list and still facing an old age they can't afford. | 20% | Under 5% |
Americans on track to keep their standard of living in retirement Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, National Retirement Risk Index | 61% | 90% |
Most of us never vote in the election that decides who represents us
| Measure | Now | Target |
|---|---|---|
States with an open primary and an independent map commission Source: Ballotpedia and state election offices | 1 | 50 |
House seats where November is genuinely in doubt, of 435 Source: Cook Political Report The target is 150, not 435 — Americans have sorted themselves geographically, and even a perfectly neutral map leaves Manhattan and rural Wyoming uncompetitive. | 18 | 150 |
The system makes self-dealing legal
| Measure | Now | Target |
|---|---|---|
Members of Congress and families trading individual stocks Source: Congressional ethics filings | Legal | Banned |
Budgets passed on time, of the last 20 years Source: Congressional Research Service | 0 | 20 |
The same table lives on its own page, so it can be checked against without reading the chapter around it: The Scorecard.